71.44% voting took place in the Datia by-election by 6 PM. The biggest change was seen in women’s voting. In 2023, women were 1.94 percentage points ahead of men, but this time they lagged by 5.61 percentage points. This is the biggest gender gap in the five elections held since 2008.
The total voter turnout also remained close to 73.59% of 2008. At that time, Datia had 1.37 lakh voters, now there are about 2.20 lakh. Voters increased by 60%, but the voting percentage remained around the 18-year-old level.
Whose electoral calculations could be made or marred by this voting pattern? Bhaskar understood from experts. Read the report…
Biggest gender gap in male-female voting in 2026
In the five elections from 2008 to 2026, 2023 was the only election when women’s voter turnout was higher than men’s. Then, 81.22% of women and 79.28% of men cast their votes. This means women’s turnout was 1.94 percentage points higher.
In 2026, the situation reversed. Men’s voter turnout was 74.09%, while women’s was 68.48%. This means men’s turnout was 5.61 percentage points higher than women’s. This is the largest difference in male-female voter turnout in five elections.
Compared to 2023, both men’s and women’s voter turnout has decreased. Women’s turnout saw a drop of 12.74 percentage points. Men’s turnout decreased by 5.19 percentage points.
Voting reached close to 2008, when 73.59% voting took place
In this by-election, 71.44% voting took place till 6 PM. This is close to the 73.59% voting of the 2008 assembly elections. The difference is about 2.15 percentage points. This comparison is also important because the number of voters in Datia has increased significantly in 18 years.
In 2008, there were about 1.37 lakh voters, while in 2026, this number has increased to about 2.20 lakh. This means voters increased by about 60%, but the voting percentage remained lower than in 2008. Even in 2008, women’s voting was lower than men’s. In that election, the voting percentage in urban areas was lower than in rural areas.
Disabled and elderly cast their votes with the help of acquaintances and security personnel
In 2008, the contest was between four big faces In the 2008 assembly elections, a total of 18 candidates were in the fray, but the main contest was between BJP, Congress, BSP, and Bharatiya Janshakti Party. Narottam Mishra was the candidate from BJP, Ghanshyam Singh from Congress, Rajendra Bharti from BSP, and Awadhesh Nayak from Bharatiya Janshakti Party.
Narottam Mishra had defeated BSP’s Rajendra Bharti by 11,233 votes. Congress’s Ghanshyam Singh was in third place. Even in the by-election held after about 18 years, the political equations related to these leaders remained a topic of discussion.
The difference is that this time Narottam Mishra himself is not the candidate from BJP. The party has given the ticket to Ashutosh Tiwari, while Congress has once again fielded Ghanshyam Singh.
Experts said – Voters showed less enthusiasm, similar to 2008 According to senior journalist Ravi Thakur, 71.44% voter turnout indicates relatively less enthusiasm among voters. In 2008, the voter turnout was also 73.59%. The 2026 voter turnout is the lowest among the five elections held since 2008. Thakur says that this time, men voted more than women.
In 2023, a scheme like Ladli Behna could have been a major factor influencing women voters. According to them, in this by-election, there was no such new electoral offer from both major parties keeping women at the center. This could be a reason for the decline in women’s voting.
Voters had reached the polling stations by 7 AM
Political equations also like 2008, then third parties changed the math
According to Ravi Thakur, the political situation in this by-election also largely appeared similar to 2008. At that time, Awadhesh Nayak, who contested the election from Bharatiya Janshakti Party, had dented BJP’s vote bank, while Rajendra Bharti of BSP had affected Congress’s votes. BJP benefited from this, and Narottam Mishra won the election.
Even this time, a situation of discontent was visible within both major parties. Thakur claims that there was resentment among a section of Narottam Mishra’s supporters due to him not getting a ticket.
During polling, some of these supporters were seen helping the Congress. On the other hand, some supporters of Rajendra Bharti showed an inclination towards the BJP.
In Jigna, when Congress accused BJP of fake voting, there was an argument among workers
Also keeping an eye on how many votes Azad Samaj Party gets
According to Thakur, Damodar Yadav of Azad Samaj Party can affect the electoral equations of both BJP and Congress. During polling, a section of Yadav voters’ support was seen towards Damodar Yadav. Meanwhile, some young voters from the SC community showed a leaning towards Bhim Army.
In some areas, a direct contest was also seen between Congress and Azad Samaj Party. Pal-Baghel and Kushwaha communities are considered traditional vote banks of BJP, but according to Thakur, some voters from these sections were also seen going to the Azad Samaj Party’s camp.
Thakur estimates that if Damodar Yadav crosses the 10,000-vote mark, he will be in a position to influence the electoral equations of both BJP and Congress. In such a scenario, it will also be important to see which party’s traditional vote bank a large portion of the votes he receives comes from.
Low voter turnout: Who benefits, picture still unclear
It is not yet clear whether low voter turnout will benefit BJP or Congress. Ravi Thakur believes that this decision will largely depend on the internal equations and vote transfer of both parties.
If a section of Narottam Mishra’s supporters, upset over him not getting a ticket, has succeeded in swaying voters in favor of Congress, then Ghanshyam Singh could benefit from it. On the other hand, if BJP has managed the Narottam Mishra factor and retained its traditional vote with the party, then Ashutosh Tiwari could benefit from it.
