{"id":30240,"date":"2026-08-02T15:20:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-02T09:50:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/owaisi-chandrashekhar-pallavi-patel-up-assembly-polls-political-math\/"},"modified":"2026-08-02T15:20:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-02T09:50:20","slug":"owaisi-chandrashekhar-pallavi-patel-up-assembly-polls-political-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/owaisi-chandrashekhar-pallavi-patel-up-assembly-polls-political-math\/","title":{"rendered":"Owaisi, Chandrashekhar &#038; Pallavi Patel: UP Assembly Polls Political Math"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"\">\n<div class=\"f3e032cb\"><picture class=\"c62bd949\" style=\"visibility:visible\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/360x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/07\/24\/comp-110_1784901083.gif\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/512x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/07\/24\/comp-110_1784901083.gif\"\/><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/07\/24\/comp-110_1784901083.gif\" alt=\"\" loading=\"eager\" class=\"f97587ba\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">As many as 12 regional parties from five states are preparing to contest the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. From Bihar&#8217;s JD(U), LJP and VIP to Maharashtra&#8217;s Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), several parties from outside the state are looking to test their political strength in UP.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:0\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">The BJP could face a challenge not only from parties from other states but also from emerging regional players within Uttar Pradesh. Leaders such as Chandrashekhar Azad, Pallavi Patel and Swami Prasad Maurya are also preparing to create new political equations.<\/p>\n<div class=\"f3e032cb\"><picture class=\"c62bd949\" style=\"visibility:visible\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/360x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-parties-from_1785634351.jpg\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/512x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-parties-from_1785634351.jpg\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"2134\" src=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-parties-from_1785634351.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"f97587ba\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Small parties can change results in close contests<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:0\"\/><span style=\"font-size:0\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Every election sees several smaller parties entering the fray with influence among specific communities or in particular districts. While these parties may win only a few seats, they can affect the outcome of several constituencies by securing even 1,000-2,000 votes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Political analyst Prof. Sanjay Kumar says major parties sometimes use smaller parties to their advantage. According to him, large parties may encourage smaller outfits to field candidates capable of dividing the opposition&#8217;s vote. By cutting into the vote share of the main contenders, these parties can alter the victory margin and ultimately determine the winner.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Owaisi eyes around 200 muslim-dominated seats<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Asaduddin Owaisi&#8217;s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is preparing to contest around 200 Muslim-dominated constituencies in Uttar Pradesh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Owaisi has already addressed rallies in Bahraich, Bijnor and Saharanpur, districts where Muslim and Dalit voters form a significant part of the electorate. By promoting the slogan &#8220;Jai Bhim, Jai Meem,&#8221; AIMIM could challenge the Samajwadi Party&#8217;s traditional electoral arithmetic in these areas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">In the 2022 UP Assembly elections, AIMIM secured between 14,000 and 36,000 votes in five constituencies\u2014Mubarakpur, Sambhal, Firozabad, Khadda and Kundarki.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">The party&#8217;s presence was also cited as a factor in close contests on seven seats\u2014Aurai, Bijnor, Sultanpur, Moradabad Nagar, Shahganj, Nakur and Kursi, where the SP lost by relatively narrow margins.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Chandrashekhar focuses on 18 Dalit-Muslim dominated seats<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Nagina MP Chandrashekhar Azad&#8217;s Azad Samaj Party is preparing to contest all 403 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. However, its primary focus is on around 18 Dalit-Muslim dominated constituencies in western UP.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">These include Nagina, Najibabad, Dhampur, Chandpur, Barhapur, Behat, Deoband, Gangoh, Rampur Maniharan, Saharanpur Rural, Kairana, Thana Bhawan, Purqazi, Meerapur, Hastinapur, Kithore, Moradabad Rural and Kundarki.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Chandrashekhar himself could contest from the reserved Hastinapur seat. His party is looking to benefit from the weakening of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in western Uttar Pradesh.<\/p>\n<div class=\"f3e032cb\"><picture class=\"c62bd949\" style=\"visibility:visible\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/360x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/chandrashekhar_1785647527.jpg\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/512x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/chandrashekhar_1785647527.jpg\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"1550\" src=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/chandrashekhar_1785647527.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"f97587ba\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Pallavi Patel looks to build her own political base<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">The political legacy of Apna Dal founder Dr Sonelal Patel has put his daughters, Anupriya Patel and Pallavi Patel, on opposite political paths.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Anupriya Patel allied with the BJP in 2014 and subsequently helped Apna Dal emerge as the third-largest party in the UP Assembly in terms of MLAs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Pallavi Patel is now attempting to expand her own political influence. Her party, Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), is looking at around 12-15 seats across Pratapgarh, Jaunpur, Varanasi, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra, including Sirathu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">It remains to be seen whether Pallavi Patel will contest the 2027 polls with the Samajwadi Party or again align with Owaisi and Swami Prasad Maurya, as she did in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">If she contests independently, political observers expect the Kurmi vote to fragment, potentially affecting the outcome in several constituencies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Raja Bhaiya plans candidates on all 403 seats<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Raja Bhaiya, chief of Jansatta Dal Loktantrik, is also preparing to field candidates across all 403 Assembly constituencies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">His strongest influence is considered to be in Pratapgarh and adjoining areas. His political positioning and influence among Thakur voters could potentially impact the BJP&#8217;s electoral prospects in some constituencies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"f3e032cb\"><picture class=\"c62bd949\" style=\"visibility:visible\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/360x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/image_1785647551.png\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/512x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/image_1785647551.png\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"730\" height=\"1054\" src=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/image_1785647551.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"f97587ba\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Other smaller parties that could impact UP&#8217;s electoral equations<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Peace Party<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Led by Dr Ayub Ansari, the Peace Party is considered influential in around 20 constituencies across Gorakhpur, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Siddharthnagar and Mau. The party won four seats in the 2012 Assembly elections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Apni Janata Party<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Led by Swami Prasad Maurya, the party is considered to have influence in around four to five constituencies in Kushinagar, Deoria and Rae Bareli.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Mahan Dal<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Led by Keshav Dev Maurya, Mahan Dal has influence in Shakya-dominated constituencies across western and central Uttar Pradesh. In the previous election, the Samajwadi Party allotted the party two seats under an alliance arrangement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Rashtriya Ulama Council<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Led by Maulana Aamir Rashadi Madni, the party has influence in Azamgarh and surrounding Muslim-dominated districts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Janwadi Party (Socialist)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">Led by Sanjay Chauhan, the party has influence in four to five districts of eastern Uttar Pradesh. Members of the Nonia community form its core voter base. The Samajwadi Party had allotted it one seat under an alliance in the previous election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>Rashtriya Adhikar Morcha (RAM)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">The party was formed by Alankar Agnihotri, who resigned as Bareilly City Magistrate amid controversies surrounding alleged disrespect to a Shankaracharya and the &#8220;choti&#8221; controversy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">For the 2027 elections, the party plans to field candidates in Brahmin-dominated constituencies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\"><strong>The bigger question: Who will benefit from the vote split?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">With national parties, established regional players and a growing number of smaller caste- and community-based outfits preparing for the 2027 UP Assembly elections, the contest could become increasingly fragmented.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"word-break:break-word;text-align:left;white-space:pre-line\">For smaller parties, winning a large number of seats may not be the immediate objective. Their ability to cut into the vote share of larger parties and influence close contests could itself give them considerable political relevance.<\/p>\n<div class=\"f3e032cb\"><picture class=\"c62bd949\" style=\"visibility:visible\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/360x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-smaller-parties_1785643169.jpg\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/webp\/thumb\/512x0\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-smaller-parties_1785643169.jpg\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"1098\" src=\"https:\/\/images.bhaskarassets.com\/web2images\/1884\/2026\/08\/02\/these-smaller-parties_1785643169.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"f97587ba\"\/><\/picture><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:0\"\/><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As many as 12 regional parties from five states are preparing to contest the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. From Bihar&#8217;s JD(U), LJP and VIP to Maharashtra&#8217;s Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), several parties from outside the state are looking to test their political strength in UP. The BJP could face a challenge not&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[23511,23508,23507,23509,23512,23510,23506,11319],"class_list":["post-30240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nation","tag-2027-up-elections","tag-chandrashekhar-azad","tag-owaisi","tag-pallavi-patel","tag-political-equations","tag-regional-parties","tag-up-assembly-polls","tag-uttar-pradesh-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30240\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/petrolnews.in\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}