The Election Commission announced elections to 12 Rajya Sabha seats on Tuesday. Polling will be held on 16 October.
These include 10 seats from Uttar Pradesh and one each from Uttarakhand and West Bengal. The BJP-led alliance is likely to win eight seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The Samajwadi Party’s tally could rise to two seats. Meanwhile, after this election, Mayawati’s BSP could lose its representation in Parliament.
The BJP could win the vacant seat in West Bengal. This is likely to increase the BJP’s total strength in the Rajya Sabha by one.
Based on the current party-wise strength in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BJP-led alliance could retain eight seats. The SP’s tally could rise to two.
The BSP has no MP in the Lok Sabha. In August, its lone Uttar Pradesh MLA, Uma Shankar Singh, died.
The term of the BSP’s lone Rajya Sabha member, Ramji Gautam, ends in November. After the election, the party could be left without any representation in Parliament.
Terms ending in Uttar Pradesh
Besides Ramji Gautam, Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri is among the members from Uttar Pradesh whose terms are ending.
The terms of BJP leaders Arun Singh, Geeta Shakya, Neeraj Shekhar, Brij Lal, B L Verma and Seema Dwivedi are also ending.
The term of SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav is also ending. Puri’s continuation in the Union Cabinet will depend on whether the BJP sends him to the Rajya Sabha again.
The 10th vacant seat in Uttar Pradesh belonged to former Deputy Chief Minister Dinesh Sharma. He resigned from the Rajya Sabha after being appointed Lieutenant Governor of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands at the beginning of this month.
BSP won the seat in 2020
The BSP sent Gautam to the Rajya Sabha in 2020. At the time, the BJP fielded only eight candidates for the 10 seats.
This gave the BSP and SP an opportunity to have one member each elected unopposed. Gautam was elected unopposed after the nomination of an independent candidate backed by the SP was rejected.
After this, the SP had alleged that the BJP and BSP had reached an understanding.
Vote arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh
The BJP-led alliance has around 290 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh. The SP-Congress alliance has approximately 103 MLAs.
Around 37 votes are needed to win one Rajya Sabha seat. The BJP can easily win seven seats.
The SP-Congress alliance can win two seats. For the final seat, the BJP is likely to have around 31 votes initially, while the SP-Congress camp is likely to have around 29.
This could give the ruling alliance an advantage in the contest for the final seat.
Seats in West Bengal and Uttarakhand
One Rajya Sabha seat in West Bengal fell vacant after actor Rukmini Malik resigned. She is also known as Koel.
The Trinamool Congress had sent her to the Rajya Sabha. She resigned after being voted out of power in the Assembly elections earlier this year.
The BJP is likely to win this lone seat in West Bengal. This could increase the party’s total strength in the Rajya Sabha by one.
BJP MP Naresh Bansal’s term in Uttarakhand is coming to an end. The BJP is in power in the state and has a comfortable majority in the Legislative Assembly.
In these circumstances, the BJP is likely to retain the seat.
The election notification will be issued on 29 September. Nominations can be filed until 6 October.
If necessary, polling and counting will be held on 16 October.
